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When considering buying a new watch, you may consider specific brands based on their value retention. It may not be because you consider buying a watch an investment. But you would at least like some peace of mind in that it will have a relatively good resale value. Of course, maintaining value for a watch you enjoy is not essential, but there are some models which drops like a stone. Where as other brands and models actually manage to increase in value if they are rare, unique and desirable enough.
In general, this is a very complex formula and not something that can be written down on paper. Prices are constantly changing along with peoples tastes. The fundamental reasoning behind watches maintaining a good resale value are both supply and demand.
Ideally you want a watch which is going to be limited in it’s supply. This instantly rules out standard models from brands such as Omega & Tag Heuer and immediately limits you to exclusive and luxury models. The perfect example of this (and a brand which does this incredibly well from the get-go) is Richard Mille.
Table of Contents
The Supply Factor
In a perfect world, any watch you buy must be in limited supply. Of course, the only factor that matters is that demand > supply. However, as a general rule, if the watch is a limited edition, production was stopped, a dial was misprinted, or any other factor adding to a limited availability is a great thing if you already own it.
A great example of this is the Dominos Pizza Rolex. Yes, it is a thing.
You may think that this design is horrible and that you would never wear it. This is a very reasonable thing to think, but you must also understand that collectors will pay big money for rare and unusual editions of a classic design.
This is a factor which continues over many other brands. Even in non-luxury brands such as Citizen, Seiko or even Invicta. If the watch has been made to a limited production such as 500 pieces. If there are 600 people wanting one of these watches, you can see why the watch would immediately increase in resale value.
The Demand Factor
Equally important as supply is demand. Of course, you may have a watch with a very limited run of 50 pieces. This does not necessarily mean it will be a good watch in terms of resale value. It only matters if the supply is less than the demand.
On the other hand, if we look at models such as the Rolex Submariner or the Rolex Daytona, there are thousands of these watches produced every single year. Despite the amount of these watches created, there is still more demand than supply.
Imagine if there were 50000 Rolex submariners released onto the market this year. In all likelihood, there may be 75000 people willing to pay retail price for these specific models. This raises the resale value of the said watch models and causes grey market prices to increase accross the board. If nobody cared about the Rolex Submariner, used watches would certainly not cost any more than new.
Diamonds, Jewels & Precious Metals
Having a watch made of solid gold, or a diamond bezel can be an easy way to increase resale value over time. Provided that the watch is not a strange design, or a poor 3rd party attempt at modification. Due to the price of commodities over time, it could well be that your watch actually goes up in value, despite what price you bought it at.
With this being said, it could take a very long time for you to break even, or get your money back. If the price of gold crashed for example, you would likely even lose resale value.
However, charts show that the price of raw precious metals have increased over time. If you did buy a gold watch in 1992, it would have at least some cost basis upon the price of the precious metal. The same can be said for today, but obviously the price is now over 3x what it was back then. 30 years into the future, your watch could be worth 3 times as much. This isn’t a fantastic investment by any means, but if you enjoyed wearing your watch, you certainly can’t complain if you sell it for more money than you originally paid.
Unpredictability & Hindsight
With everything already said about how to get the best resale value out of a watch. The largest factor is both luck and hindsight. Back in 2010, you were able to buy a Rolex Submariner or Daytona from any authorised dealer. There was always stock readily available and it was possible to get a discount on list prices.
The point is, if you don’t know the production numbers of a watch company, or even a specific model within the brand. There is no way of knowing when demand will exceed supply. Of course people will say that they “knew” this certain design or dial was going to be the most popular. But in reality this is purely hindsight bias. For every successful watch purchase, there will be an equally as unsuccessful one.
For example, if you were given 1 million dollars today which could only be spent on watches to be sold in 10 years time. What would you buy?
Most people would likely choose a variety of popular Rolex models. However, these weren’t too popular 10 years ago, who is to say they will be popular in future decades? It’s possible you would make money. But nobody has a crystal ball, so it is a lot more difficult to see which models will retain resale value than you would think.
Best Watch Models For Resale Value
Rolex Submariner
It should go without saying that in recent years the Rolex submariner has returned the most amount of money for the least risk. Of course, you could argue that Richard Mille have given fantastic resale value. Although when you’re investing $250k up front into a watch. This is beyond most peoples reach. At just over $9000 list, a used submariner can easily fetch $10k.
If you are holding a submariner from 10 years ago, you likely paid around half of this list price and would be looking at a similar sales price of around $10k. It’s not set in stone whether this trend will continue, although for the forseeable future, it does not look like Rolex will increase production. With the introduction of new popular Tudor models, Rolex seems to be making their primary focus making watches such as the Daytona and Submariner as scarce as they possibly can.
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore
The Royal Oak Offshore is a classic design and one which saved the holy trinity brand from becoming just another Swiss watchmaker. In recent years the popularity (and price) of AP offshores has skyrocketed. This is particularly relevant for models made of precious metals such as the gold or rose gold variations.
Obviously if you’re going to buy a Royal Oak chronograph of any material, you’re going to be paying a lot of money upfront. As the AP brand is so established, you’re not really risking much by spending money on a watch, no matter how expensive. Just like a classic work of art, this is a brand which manages to hold its value through time.
Patek Philippe Nautilus
Another watch which you’ll be on a long waiting list for is the Patek Phlippe Nautilus. If you do manage to get your hands on any of the various dial designs at list price. It’s very likely that you will be able to sell the watch the very same day for a decent profit.
If you buy and hold a Nautilus for an extended time period, this is a watch with a very solid resale value. As discussed earlier, the reason for this is simply supply and demand. Patek Philippe has not, and likely will not increase the production on very popular models to meet the demand. Therefore people are willing to pay more money to get hold of one. Much like any other watch in this article. If you are able to pick up a Nautilus in gold or rose gold, this will likely make your resale value even higher.
Tag Heuer Monaco
In general, Tag Heuer is NOT a good brand to buy in terms of resale value. Most of the brands models are mass produced, mass marketed and always in stock. The one exception to this rule is the Monaco. Whilst it is not as expensive as other luxury watches, it does manage to hold most of its value. This is a watch that will likely not make you any money, but will not lose you much either.
The iconic design of the Monaco differentiates it from all of the other sports and racing models that Tag Heuer offer. Ideally, as with most other watches you want to get good resale prices from. You will want some kind of limited edition or rare dial Monaco. Tag Heuer regularly brings out special editions of certain models, usually in memory of former racing drivers such as Senna. Or movie stars such as Steve McQueen. When these dials do come onto the market, this is probably the best time to buy them – as when availability runs out, you now have a rare model.
